2016年中国宏观经济预测：前景光明（双语）

　　爱语导读:根据中国人民银行的一个研究报告，尽管由产能过剩、利润减速和非盈利贷款增加等因素造成的经济增长的下行压力仍将持续，但一系列的积极因素在2016年将逐步显现。

　　A number of positive factors will gradually gain traction in 2016, although downward pressures on growth such as overcapacity, profit deceleration and rising nonprofit loans will persist, according to a research report from the People’s Bank of China.

　　根据中国人民银行的一个研究报告，尽管由产能过剩、利润减速和非盈利贷款增加等因素造成的经济增长的下行压力仍将持续，但一系列的积极因素在2016年将逐步显现。

　　Ma Jun, chief economist at the central bank’s research bureau, said a baseline forecast for real GDP growth in 2016 is 6.8 percent, slightly lower than the expectation of 6.9 percent for this year. For next year, the baseline CPI inflation forecast is 1.7 percent, he said.

　　央行研究局首席经济学家马骏说，2016的实际DGP增长的基准预测为6.8%，略低于今年6.9%的预期。他说，明年CPI涨幅的基准预测为1.7%。

　　Real estate investment will see a slow rebound, he added.

　　他补充说，房地产投资业将会有缓慢的回暖

　　Sales of China’s commercial residential buildings increased by an average 22.4 percent year-on-year from April to November, much higher than a minus 7.8 percent year-on-year in the previous 15 months.

　　从今年4月到11月，中国商品房销售额的同比增速平均值增加了22.4%，显著高于去年1月至今年3月期间的负增长 (这15个月平均同比增速为-7.8%)。

　　Growth in land transfer fees of 300 major cities picked up in the past several months. The recovery of the two indexes is expected to restore investors’ confidence; however, there will be a time delay given the high inventory and weak demand in some medium to small cities, so investment is expected to pick up in the second half of 2016, Ma said.

　　300个主要城市的土地出让金收入的增长也在过去几个月开始复苏。销售回暖和土地出让收入的增长这两个指数的恢复有望重振投资者的信心。然而，据马骏称，在当前房屋高库存和一些中小型城市需求疲软的现状下，投资的复苏将有一个时间延迟，因此有望出现在2016年下半年。

　　Macro and structural policies are expected to show delayed impacts. The People’s Bank of China has lowered interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio five times since the beginning of 2015, which has greatly reduced financing costs.

　　宏观调控和结构政策的调整在一定时滞之后将显现出对实体经济的效果。自2015年初以来，中国人民银行已经五次降准降息，从而大大降低了融资成本。

　　Along with the proactive fiscal measures adopted by the government, the policy adjustments are expected to have a measurable impact on CPI over a period of about five quarters. CPI faces upward risks including rebounds in oil, and food and real estate prices, while the downward risks include lingering low oil prices and falling commodity prices, led by a stronger dollar, according to Ma.

　　随着政府采取的积极的财政措施，政策的调整有望在后续的五个季度里对CPI产生重大影响。据马骏称，CPI指数面临的上升风险包括石油、食品和房地产价格的反弹，而由美元走强造成的低油价的长期徘徊、商品价格下跌则是CPI面临的下行风险。

　　Services and green industries will be the new drivers. Emerging industries such as culture, entertainment, tourism, housekeeping services, environmental protection treatment, clean energy, electric cars, e-commerce and intelligent manufacturing have gradually become new drivers for the economy.

　　服务业和绿色产业将提供新的支撑。像文化、娱乐、旅游、家政服务、环保治理、清洁能源、电动汽车、电子商务和智能制造等新兴产业已逐渐成为经济发展的最新的驱动力。

　　Demand for housekeeping services will continue to grow thanks to the new "two-child policy" and an aging population. More stringent environmental standards and enforcement will support green investment and bolster the development of new energy, energy efficiency and environmental protection, the report said.

　　该报告说，由于“二孩政策”的全面放开以及人口的老龄化，家政服务的需求会继续快速增长；更加严格的环境标准和执行力度将增加对绿色投资的支持，并加速新能源、节能、环保等产业的发展。

　　Online video is expected to have greater potential for development due to improved intellectual property protection for movies and television programs. The implementation of the China Manufacturing 2025 strategy will promote the development of industries such as the new generation telecommunication technologies, numerical control machine tools, ocean engineering equipment, new materials and biological medicine, Ma said.

　　马骏说，随着国家对电影和电视版权保护力度的增强，在线视频行业有望获得更大的发展。中国制造业2025大战略的实施也将推动新一代电信技术、数控机床设备、海洋工程设备、新材料、生物医药等产业的发展。(声明：本文为爱语吧原创翻译，转载请注明来源，否则追究法律责任)

　　来源:China Daily 双语新闻

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